It’s not whether the Fed heads cut 25 or 50 basis points. It’s how the market reacts, obviously.
My thoughts: A 25 bp cut telegraphs that the Fed thinks it sees a “soft landing,” and inflation is starting to behave.
A 50 bp cut could imply that the Fed realizes it is late to the game in cutting rates and is worried about a “hard landing.”
We shall see. Tomorrow is enormous because the Fed has been raising, not cutting, so even the most informed pundits are probably pretty clueless. That means the algorithms are clueless, too, but they have a language program, so the first move (up/down) may not be the actual move until everything gets processed.
RXST and ASTS triggered today. P&L will be updated in the morning to include those names.