Stocks are higher after a decent outcome with China and the USA after the G20 meeting over the weekend. Probably the sector most sensitive to this China outcome is the semiconductor space and that group is up 3%.
This should be a very low volume week because of the 4th of July on Thursday, but we all know that some of the biggest market moves can come on holiday-shortened weeks. We have seen this happen around Christmas & Thanksgiving.
The thinking has changed a little here though. With China and the USA playing together in the sandbox now, it may put less pressure on the Fed to not cut rates as much. We will see how that plays out, but right now it’s not a problem.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50 basis point cut in July has been cut to 20.4% from 32.3% on Friday.