But when is it happening for the market?
This action doesn’t want to make you go “all in” either way, long or short. It just feels like we’re buying time until some kind of “event” happens, good or bad. Is this market working up steam to summer rally or will we just see more of the same as we go forward? You’ve heard of the summer doldrums, well we have the spring doldrums for sure right now.
I’ve used the word “ruddderless”before to describe this market, and that’s really what we have now. No catalysts, a hawky fed, crappy earnings and no real interest by market players to take the hill and make a stand.
Today was the lowest volume day of the year. Thanksgiving and Christmas had nearly the same volume on SPY during HALF a day of trading.
Today the SPX, in lethargic fashion, hit some of the moving average resistance that I talked about last night and backed off. These moving averages are not impossible to breach to the upside, but what’s the impetus right now? None really, so we chop and sway and accomplish nothing.
Will second quarter earnings be any better? I don’t know, the dollar has been going up pretty much everyday since May 3. Right now we are two thirds of the way through the second quarter. Remember a strong greenback is bad for multinational companies, a great majority are in the S&P 500.
This would be a great time for the bears to knock the snot out of this market, but they hide in the weeds. Neither side wants the brass ring right now.