I’ll get to that possibly bullish thing in a minute.
I know what I would do about Syria, but I have no idea what to do with my Netflix copy of Syriana.
In July of 2012 the 10 year note ($TNX) was 1.40%. It’s now 2.95% and it tagged 3% this week. With all the bitching and moaning we’ve done, the market is up 25% over that period of time. The financial media is absent any real content, so they drill this taper shit into your foreheads with a nail gun. The market is the perfect discounting machine. Flawless. It always was and always will be. The free marketplace always does the Fed’s job. Through all the angst, anxiety and incessant droning on about yields rising, the market just does what it does. Frankly, I think bonds are oversold, so I like $TLT for a long side “trade”. I also like stocks and I was quasi bearish last weekend.
Over the last two weeks the $SPX held support (1625-1630) even though it broke the all important 50 day moving average. On Friday, the $SPX just about hit the underside of the 50 day ma on its way back up, but failed to punch through. Bears will say that was the “short” spot. The bulls will say that it’s working itself back up and it was a lazy Friday.
If you are a swing/position trader like me, you always want to think macro, but trade micro. If you’re a day trader, it doesn’t matter if the world is falling apart, because you are in and out. This past week was awesome for day traders, as setups are bountiful. Swing traders did well too, as long as you were in the right names. $Z, $YELP and $NFLX have been paying my bills lately.
I’m still not sure if I want to call this a market in correction or a market in rotation.
Now for that bullish thing.
The Nazzy ($QQQ) hit a new high on Friday and technically the MACD turned up. I love when MACD turns up. So either this index is waiting to be pulled down by the other indexes, or it will eventually lead the other indexes higher. Jury still out.
What also happened on Friday is that the Dow Jones ($DJIA) and $SPX had bullish MACD cross ups. Yes it was day one, and a follow through next week will be key, but its a good sign.
The $SPX also crossed up.
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