{+++} This was a tough weekend for stock analysis. It was a down week for the Nasdaq and technology, materials are going back down and the financials went back and tested some moving average support.
Stocks have started to pull back a little which makes the charts very tough to read here. Many are “in the middle” meaning they are stuck between moving averages which makes it that much harder to place bets. Alcoa starts earnings season today after the close today and we see the real action in earnings next week.
I’d feel better if the $SPX came down and fully tested its 50 day moving average down around 1531 so we could flush out some weak hands and start building a new base for higher prices. But it might night so I’m watching closely.
Here is a look at today’s earnings upgrades and downgrades. See you on the chat room.
ARGUS:
– JNPR upgraded hold to buy
– PEG downgraded buy to hold
BANK AMERICA/MERRILL LYNCH:
– TMH – Reit Buy – Raising Px Tgt from $41 to $44 – Takeaways from management meetings
– OZM – Reit Buy – Lowering Px Tgt from $17 to $14 – Raising ests, but moving to more conservative Px Tgt
– MKSI – Reit Buy – Px Tgt $33 – Early cyclical recovery thesis remains intact
– TER – Reit Neutral – Px Tgt $18.50 – Management meetings reaffirm LitePoint potential
– NVS downgraded buy to neutral
BARCLAYS:
– Machinery – Demand for global construction machinery modestly improving; European-focus of Bauma could overshadow growth trends in NA & SA markets given sluggishness in European construction; favor MTW & TEX
– Paper Products – Shifting industry dynamics driving l-term value creation; see n-term lead to continued outperformance; supply driven scarcity is driving prices higher & valuation remains attractive; favor RKT and IP
-Truckload Preview – Expect subdued price gains & slight demand growth; cut ests to reflect weak pricing & normal winter difficulties; slightly better intermodal pricing should lift EWs JBHT & could provide benefit to SWFT & WERN
– GIII – init OW and $46 tgt – see double digit growth in women’s business, lowering reliance on outerwear from 95% of sales in ‘05 to 47% today
– HBI – raise tgt to $54 from $50
CANACCORD:
– VALE upgraded hold to buy
CREDIT SUISSE:
– NWSA upgraded neutral to OP
– MTN downgraded OP to neutral
– BBY – becoming the funnel in consumer electronics, significant margin oppty ahead. Reit OP, $30 TP
GLOBAL HUNTER:
– LINE downgraded accumulate to neutral
GOLDMAN SACHS:
– SSNI – init neutral and $19 tgt
JP MORGAN:
– RP – init neutral
– Aerospace & Defense: adjusting estimates and ratings; Downgrading LLL to underweight and upgrading NOC to Neutral… believe that LLL’s earnings profile is the most at risk from sequestration among the large cap defense stocks due to its relatively shorter-cycle operations and higher financial leverage
– WLL upgraded neutral to OW
– SCCO upgraded neutral to OW
– JNJ downgraded OW to neutral – as good as Pharma and Consumer Staples stocks have been, J&J of late has been even better; and while fundamentals have improved at J&J, at $82 we think this is much more reflected in the name
– Software preview – expect mixed 1Q results from the Software sector. Despite reasonable expectations, potentially reduced spending from the financial services vertical, US government, and Europe may weigh on results
– CBS – reit OW – outlook for the business is positive with healthy ad trends, improved ratings, an ongoing stream of content revenues and increasing capital returns to shareholders…raise tgt
– DIS – reiterating our Overweight rating on DIS shares and raising our year end 2013 price target to $67 from $63 with greater confidence in the future FCF generation of the company
– TWX – reiterating our Overweight rating and raising our 2013 year-end price target on TWX to $67 from $59
– ARCO – Lowering PT to $12 from $14; Raising Q1 SSS to +9.2% from +8.7%, Lowering F13 EPS to 44c from 64c
KEEFE BRUYETTE:
– FNFG upgraded MP to OP
LONGBOW:
– WCC upgraded neutral to buy
MACQUARIE:
– RDN upgraded neutral to outperform – view Radian’s three-year outlook for EPS growth and ROE expansion to be the most attractive in our coverage universe. Best way to play MI ROE expansion
– FMC upgraded neutral to outperform – arguing that the Ag platform is in great shape, that 2H13 will see lithium operations return to a normal run rate and that the worst will also lie behind its soda ash business by July. Near term, overblown issues, in our view, have pressed the stock 5% lower
– MTG upgraded underperform to neutral – After a capital raise last month, we no longer think the company’s viability as a going concern is in doubt. However, we continue to believe RDN shares are more attractively valued at this point in the cycle
– EDU – believe New Oriental’s restructuring efforts have begun to show results, and will positively impact operating margins in the February quarter
– Crude oil – remain short-term bearish crude oil. The Brent front to back spread has moved into a slight Contango for the first time in 10 months signaling a soft supply-demand balance. The large refining turnaround (TA) season has contributed to seasonal crude demand softness
MIZUHO:
– CA downgraded buy to neutral
MORGAN STANLEY:
– MU – we are bullish on NAND, we think DRAM is also structurally improving, and the Elpida transaction will be highly accretive. We are constructive on fundamentals, but the recent run-up has us looking for a better entry point – we prefer SNDK at current levels. Equal-weight, $11 base case
– Large Cap bank preview – Capital markets tailwind could drive upside surprise, long JPM and C in money centers as JPM share gain and C expense mgmt should pull those stocks through seasonally weaker 2q/3q. Pick up mortgage sensitive STI/RF during earnings as GoS is bottoming out and southeast spring selling season heating up
– Towers – While the tower stocks have lagged the market this year for the fourth time since 1999 (+0.5% ytd v. S&P 500 at +9.4% ytd), the business itself has been far more positive
NEEDHAM:
– RDWR downgraded buy to hold
RBC CAPITAL:
– FLEX upgraded neutral to OP
STERNE AGEE:
– RBCN upgraded neutral to buy – Raising Estimates and Target on Anticipated Recovery in Fundamentals – Based on our discussions with key players in the sapphire supply chain, we believe industry fundamentals are about to improve. We are raising our CY14 revenue and EPS estimates
STIFEL NICHOLAS:
– MHR downgraded buy to hold
– SSNI – init buy and $22 tgt
– PVA downgraded buy to hold
SUSQUEHANNA:
– SKX – bucking the trend in Q1; product momentum leads to market share gains. Increasing estimates and reit Positive rating. $25 TP
WELLS FARGO:
– YUM – expects Yum! Brands’ same-store sales to drop 10% in March due to bird flu concerns in China…but expects to be short-lived