The bums couldn’t do it. We gave them weeks and countless hours and they failed miserably. A U.S. downgrade will most certainly happen over the next few months and we will find out to what degree this is already discounted. Just what we need right now, partisan ideology to crush any remnants of confidence. I guess we will always have The Bernanke and his evil printing presses though. The double dip is coming.
Bloomberg did a review of the analyst community (the sell side) and found that the best were no better than a coin flip. They looked at calls made from January 2009 to August 2011 made by 2900 analysts on the financial sector and found that they got 1.3 predictions out of 16 correct. Staggering, just staggering. The analysts that were considered the “good ones” barely beat a coin flip.
$RBS was the worst at 39% accuracy and Raymond James was first with 67% accuracy. One of the best track records was from banking analyst Mike Mayo who I wrote about here.
So remember these stats the next time they tell you there wont be a double dip or a downgrade.
Futures are leaning green this morning after yesterday’s thrashing. We will see how long it lasts.
I have been warning about $AMZN for over a week and yesterday the stock was hammered through its 200 day moving average and it looks lower. Market leader $GOOG sold off, broke its 20 day moving average and also looks lower for now. The next support looks like 555-565. Yesterday $AAPL came within a few points of its 200 day moving average, better support is around 355.
The melodrama continues and we may see an over sold turkey week rally. I couldn’t have less interest in trading this tape this week.
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