{+++} We lost about 20 handles on the S&P in about the first ninety minutes, took out the last piece of support that was put in on June 16. It looks like a short term bottom may have been put in today and the market may decide to rally for a few days.
I added ERX as a long today as energy may have also been overdone to the downside. This is not an all clear by any stretch and I do believe we may still go lower after a rally. Charts are an absolute mess and need work before they can be trusted again, long or short.
The big unemployment number comes out on Friday and most people expect yet another disappointment. JP Morgan came out today calling for unemployment to stay above 9% for the next 12-16 months. Putting aside the possibility of a technical bounce for stocks, there isn’t a positive catalyst in sight and earnings (the only recent bright spot) are pretty much done. Double dip talk is everywhere now.
For the first tie since I can remember the P&L if flat with no active names. I think shorting is a fools game here, but will feel much differently about that once we get a rally to more shortable levels. Buying aggressively here is also imprudent because you just don’t know what the open will ever bring as global headlines rule the market and gaps can be a killer. It’s OK to go through short periods holding cash, it can be a great hedge against uncertainty.
Stay cautious and be careful who you listen to out there. Financial news can be a drag and depressing. Think of the same stories (none good) that get repeated over and over. Not good for your psyche. Try trading the screen in front of you for a change without the droning. You may be surprised with the results.
No new additions tonight.