I wrote yesterday that M & A may be back. There are a couple of different ways to look at this summer doldroms phenomenon. Some say, that when rumors constantly surface about a stock or stocks that it could be the sign of a serious market top. Some say it is a sign that the market is way too cheap. Usually, the smaller names start running like scalded monkeys as they get “put up” by a takeover rumor. It can become silly because everything gets to be in play. Hedge funds that are trapped in a long are usually the culprits, word travels faster than wildfire on all the trading desks and bingo, a stock is now in play. Every trader on the Street is on Bloomberg instant message, the ones that aren’t are still on AIM and some of the pikers just text what they just heard. Yes, many traders still do use AIM by AOL.
Frankly, just by virtue of trading on a public exchange , you are takeover bait, anyone can buy, or start a rumor about a company at any point.
The other rationale is that maybe this phenomena is for real. We’ve seen billions in potential deals announced recently. Many are real as you can get, POT, GENZ , MFE. Other “rumored” names like AKAM, HGSI, DNDN, had interesting action last week, and so many others popped that aren’t mentioned here.
Rumors alone create short squeezes, but an actual deal can create a squeeze in an entire sector. It’s bullish action in its purest form. Here comes the “big but”. We’re not seeing that in this market, we’ve seen a rash of actual deals and rumors, but I’m just not seeing the powerful move higher in the general market that should accompany such a dynamic.. Very disturbing. Maybe it’s just August.
P.S. Loving the pundits (or anyone for that matter) that tells you something like this, “I think we rally through August, then get killed in September, then go up in October, but then….”. I don’t know what the market will do at the open on Monday or lunchtime on Tuesday, anyone who tells you they do, should be committed or arrested.
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Have a great weekend and enjoy the links.
Whistle-blowers get a raise.
Julian gets ‘Wikileaked”
Death of the McMansion.
Whacky market.
Easy money.
The Twitter trailer
Still living in centuries passed.
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