{+++}I was in meetings all day so I didn’t tweet and had a crazy schedule last night, my apologies for no post. I rarely if ever miss an evening post.
I posted this morning that the financials were the group to watch. They’ve been weak as hell and I only wish we had more exposure on the short side. It’s been a slow motion decline with no major casualties yet, but they certainly are heavy. $14 is a big number optically, but the real break for XLF is $13.74.
The big theme is the TARP babies, Citibank, Bank of America and Wells Fargo, watch them at all costs. They all priced mind boggling secondaries in the last couple of weeks to get out from under TARP. They all need to stay above their secondary pricings, a break would be really bearish for the group, abreak would mean that institutional sponsorship to defend the bid is scared money.
Here are their secondary prices: BAC $15, WFC $25, C $ 3.15-by the way, BAC closed below the price, C traded intraday below the price and WFC is still above the price. Holding these levels I think is critical from a confidence stand point. Mostly optical and psychologica,l but it does go deeper as far as institutions view things.
No names tonight, we are at big number on the S&P and the XLF, 1095 and $14 respectively, if we lose the 1095 level chances are we trade to 1080-1084 and if we lose $14 , it’s possible we trade to 13.70 area. and maybe lower.
Tomorrow is triple witching day for options and it could get crazy either way, so be careful.
NANO stopped today as it announced a secondary offering, never good. Don’t worry, no more bio techs for a while, the higher they go, chances are they will dilute and issue stock.
This market is tough, I made a bunch yesterday and gave a bunch back today, if you’re like me just try to shake it off. These last couple of months have tested my mettle and has tried my patience.
The new year is coming, I know I’m working on improvements, personally, trading wise and for the blog. We are all a constant work in progress. Hopefully I can telegraph these to the site. The market has changed a bit since the site started so hopefully I can change too and make it better.
I run a hedge fund all day, and it never ends at 4pm with the market, but I love what I do and I expect a great year for 2010, I don’t care if we crash or go to S&P 1400, well be there.
| Date | Symbol | Long Price | Short Price | Stop | Action | Result P/(L) | Triggered |
| 9-24-09 | |||||||
| MCO | 23.00 | 22.00 | Covered 1/3
Covered 1/3 Stopped 1/3 |
+2.00
+4.30 +1.00 |
yes | ||
| MHP | 26.19 | 26 | Covered ½,stopped on balance flat | +2.00 | yes | ||
| NAV | 40.31 | 39 | Covered 1/3
Covered 1/3 Covered 1/3 |
+1.30
+3.00 +2.03 |
yes | ||
| QSFT | 16.30 | 16 | Sold ½, sold balance(10-13-9) | +.80
+1.70 |
yes | ||
| SIGA | 8.43 | 7.65 | Stopped | -.80 | yes | ||
| MELA | 10.50 | 9.50 | Stopped | -1.00 | yes | ||
| 9-28-09 | COCO | 17.29 | 18.25 | Sold ½
Stopped 1/2 |
+1.00
-.90 |
yes | |
| ZION | 17.39 | 19.00 | Stopped ½ flat | yes | |||
| 9-30-09 | YGE | 11.90 | 12.60 | -.70 | yes | ||
| VNO | 63.00 | 65.50 | flat | +2.50 | yes | ||
| XCO | 19.05 | 18.00 | stopped | -1.05 | yes | ||
| MHGC | 5.60 | 5.20 | -.40 | yes | |||
| 10-1-09 | CALI | 6.35 | 5.50 | stopped | -.85 | no | |
| CENX | 8.97 | 9.60 | stopped | +.50 | yes | ||
| BAC | 16.02 | 16.80 | stopped | -.78 | yes | ||
| AAP | 37.70 | 39.40 | stopped | -1.70 | yes | ||
| 10-05-09 | EXC | 47.78 | 50 | stopped | -2..22 | yes | |
| JEF | 27.60 | 27.90 | Sold 100% (10-13-9) | +1.60 | yes | ||
| TSPT | 14.35 | 13.70 | stopped | -.65 | yes | ||
| HIG | 29.05 | 28.30 | stopped | -.75 | yes | ||
| APT | 6.25 | 6.00 | stopped | -.25 | yes | ||
| 10-7-9 | FCX | 73.43 | 73.00 | Sold half(10-13-9)
Sold balance10-14-9 |
+1.78
+3.10 |
yes | |
| 10-10-9 | PENN | 25.67 | 26.20 | stopped | -.53 | yes | |
| NITE | 23.00 | 22.40 | stopped | -.60 | yes | ||
| O | 22.85 | 24.00 | yes | ||||
| STEC | 25.51 | 25.80 | Covered 1/3
Covered 2/3 |
+1.00
+3.50 |
yes | ||
| ARST | 23.59 | 24.00 | Sold 1/3
Sold 1/3 |
+1.20
+2.20 |
yes | ||
| FIRE | 23.43 | 22.50 | stopped | -1.90 | yes | ||
| 10-14-9 | HRBN | 19.72 | 19.30 | stopped | -.50 | yes | |
| UCTT | 6.95 | 6.30 | stopped | -.65 | yes | ||
| 10-15-09 | MS | 33.35 | 33.00 | Sold all | +2.00 | ||
| 10-16-9 | QSII | 65.76 | 64.00 | stopped | -1.76 | yes | |
| ACI | 24.22 | 23.20 | stopped | -1.02 | yes | ||
| 10-19-9 | MEE | 33.64 | 34.50 | stopped | -1.20 | yes | |
| BTU | 42.35 | 42.50 | sold | +.20 | yes | ||
| FSLR | 146.80 | 152 | stopped | -5.00 | yes | ||
| ABAX | 23.86 | 25.00 | Covered ½
Covered 1/2 |
+1.00
+1.00 |
yes | ||
| PPD | 40.12 | 41.50 | Stopped | -1.30 | yes | ||
| MCO | 23.14 | 25.50 | Stopped | -2.35 | yes | ||
| 10-22-9 | MCRS | 27.40 | 28.00 | Covered 1/3 | +1.30 | yes | |
| AMAG | 35.10 | 35.90 | yes | ||||
| TNDM | 22.92 | 23.40 | Covered ½
Covered ¼ Stopped 1/4 |
+1.90
+2.30 -.48 |
yes | ||
| BAC | 16.05 | 16.60 | Covered 1/3
Covered 1/3 Covered 1/3 |
+.80
+1.00 +1.50 |
yes | ||
| VMI | 75.70 | 76.70 | Covered ½
Covered ¼ Covered balance |
+3.00
+3.00 +4.00 |
yes | ||
| CMG | 81.13 | 83.00 | Stopped | -1.87 | yes | ||
| ROVI | 28,09 | 29.00 | Stopped | -.91 | yes | ||
| CCL | 30.60 | 31.60 | Covered 1/3 | +1.30 | yes | ||
| 10-30-9 | RTH | 90.00 | 92.00 | Stopped | -2.00 | yes | |
| ROST | 43.76 | 44.83 | Stopped | -1.10 | yes | ||
| NIHD | 27.25 | 28.25 | Covered ½
Stopped 1/2 |
+1.90
-1.00 |
yes | ||
| FWLT | 28.12 | 29.00 | Stopped | -.88 | yes | ||
| 11-2-09 | CYOU | 29.00 | 29.80 | Stopped | .-80 | yes | |
| YGE | 11.17 | 11.70 | Stopped | -50 | yes | ||
| JLL | 46.38 | 47.20 | Sold ½
Stopped 1/2 |
+1.30
-82 |
yes | ||
| XHB | 13.70 | 14.30 | Stopped | -.60 | yes | ||
| WFC | 27.40 | 28.20 | Stopped | -80 | yes | ||
| 11-5-09 | FUQI | 19.14 | 21.00 | Stopped | -1.86 | yes | |
| CMG | 87.50 | 89.50 | Stopped | -2.00 | yes | ||
| EXPE | 23.60 | 24.70 | Stopped | -1.10 | yes | ||
| AIG | 32.66 | 31.00 | Sold 1/3
Stopped 2/3 |
+4.00
+1.66 |
yes | ||
| MEE | 33.68 | 32.00 | Sold | +3.60 | yes | ||
| BEC | 65.50 | 68.50 | Stopped | -3.00 | yes | ||
| 11-13-09 | GT | 14.56 | 15.50 | yes | |||
| 11-18-09 | FCX | 85.20 | 81.75 | Stopped | -3.30 | yes | |
| AGU | 55.80 | 55.50 | Stopped | -1.80 | yes | ||
| 11-19-09 | TSTC | 13.80 | 15.00 | Sold 2/3 on 12.2.9 | +2.50 | yes | |
| 11-20-09 | ABAX | 22.30 | 24.75 | yes | |||
| 11-23-09 | POT | 115.53 | 111.50 | stopped | -4.00 | yes | |
| MOS | 55.40 | 55.00 | Sold 12/2.9 | +4.90 | yes | ||
| 12/3/09 | VISN | 10.46 | 10.00 | yes | |||
| 12/6/09 | WFC | 26.00 | 27.25 | yes | |||
| 12/8/09 | NANO | 13.40 | 11.40 | yes | |||
| 12/9/09 | XTO | 40.20 | 43.50 | Stopped-Takeover | -7.00 | yes | |
| APA | 91.90 | 96.00 | Stopped | -4.10 | yes | ||
| UPL | 44.92 | 48.00 | Stopped | -3.00 | yes | ||
| EOG | 84.95 | 89.00 | Stopped | -4.00 | yes | ||
| PNC | 52.00 | 55.00 | no | ||||
| 12/10/9 | XHB | 14.12 | 15.00 | no | |||
| ASIA | 31.15 | 29.15 | yes | ||||
| SEED | 11.50 | 10.00 | yes | ||||
| 12/14/09 | VNO | 70.56 | 67.70 | yes |