{+++}I’m kinda sorta thinking that this commodity/ materials bull market could have legs. Maybe I’m oversimplifying, but the dollar ripped higher today, and the materials and oil sectors were strong. Washington put all the evil oil speculators on the most wanted list last year, but I guess it’s OK for them to speculate in oil equities and materials, after all a higher “stock” market is a good thing, high oil prices a bad thing. So many conspiracy theorists believe the market goes up everyday because the government is behind it. After all, the last thing the government needs is another run on the market in addition to all the domestic problems we are having with the economy. I mean Joe Sixpack could care less, and probably doesn’t understand what a weak dollar means right now, but he does understand what his mutual fund NAV and 401k statement is at the end of the month.The conspiracy theorists obviously don’t think Tim Geithner or Big Ben are on the floor of the CBOE buying Index Options, but what does inaction by the government do for stock prices?
Two things come to mind, interest rates and a weak dollar. Do we really need rates at 1/4 percent? Would be any worse off if the rate was say 1/2 or 3/4%? Probably not a whole lot, but optically and psychologically it would be devastating. Why? Because Geithner and especially Bernanke have corporate America suckling from the zero rate teet right now.
Regarding the dollar, Ben and Timbo have been invisible, silent. Dovishness is an understatement in their approach to the dollar. Why? Well, with he exception of today, a strong dollar is Kryptonite for stocks. So, what do they do? Well they do nothing. They don’t defend it outside of some frail rhetoric at their stately cocktail parties. The carry trade is in full swing and the market is roaring. The Fed’s Fisher yesterday said “most carry trades end in tears.” He’s correct, the last one that started to unwind was right before the crash.
Hey, Im not knocking it, I’m just trying to shed a little light why I try to figure it out myself, I would like to know your thoughts. HAL almost triggered today (32) and I got long some FCX near the close just under $85, the stock looks ready for a breakout perhaps to the $90 level, if you can pick it off tomorrow under 85.50 its probably a good move.
I’ve added five longs, all in the materials and oil space. Let’s root for a weak dollar. Also keep in mind with Thanksgiving coming up expect trading to get even thnner, but a lot whippier. Have a great night.
| Date | Symbol | Long Price | Short Price | Stop | Action | Result P/(L) | Triggered |
| 9-24-09 | |||||||
| MCO | 23.00 | 22.00 | Covered 1/3
Covered 1/3 Stopped 1/3 |
+2.00
+4.30 +1.00 |
yes | ||
| MHP | 26.19 | 26 | Covered ½,stopped on balance flat | +2.00 | yes | ||
| NAV | 40.31 | 39 | Covered 1/3
Covered 1/3 Covered 1/3 |
+1.30
+3.00 +2.03 |
yes | ||
| QSFT | 16.30 | 16 | Sold ½, sold balance(10-13-9) | +.80
+1.70 |
yes | ||
| SIGA | 8.43 | 7.65 | Stopped | -.80 | yes | ||
| MELA | 10.50 | 9.50 | Stopped | -1.00 | yes | ||
| 9-28-09 | COCO | 17.29 | 18.25 | Sold ½
Stopped 1/2 |
+1.00
-.90 |
yes | |
| ZION | 17.39 | 19.00 | Stopped ½ flat | yes | |||
| 9-30-09 | YGE | 11.90 | 12.60 | -.70 | yes | ||
| VNO | 63.00 | 65.50 | flat | yes | |||
| XCO | 19.05 | 18.00 | stopped | -1.05 | yes | ||
| MHGC | 5.60 | 5.20 | -.40 | yes | |||
| 10-1-09 | CALI | 6.35 | 5.50 | stopped | -.85 | no | |
| CENX | 8.97 | 9.60 | stopped | +.50 | yes | ||
| BAC | 16.02 | 16.80 | stopped | -.78 | yes | ||
| AAP | 37.70 | 39.40 | stopped | -1.70 | yes | ||
| 10-05-09 | EXC | 47.78 | 50 | stopped | -2..22 | yes | |
| JEF | 27.60 | 27.90 | Sold 100% (10-13-9) | +1.60 | yes | ||
| TSPT | 14.35 | 13.70 | stopped | -.65 | yes | ||
| HIG | 29.05 | 28.30 | stopped | -.75 | yes | ||
| APT | 6.25 | 6.00 | stopped | -.25 | yes | ||
| 10-7-9 | FCX | 73.43 | 73.00 | Sold half(10-13-9)
Sold balance10-14-9 |
+1.78
+3.10 |
yes | |
| 10-10-9 | PENN | 25.67 | 26.20 | stopped | -.53 | yes | |
| NITE | 23.00 | 22.40 | stopped | -.60 | yes | ||
| O | 22.85 | 24.00 | yes | ||||
| STEC | 25.51 | 25.80 | Covered 1/3
Covered 2/3 |
+1.00
+3.50 |
yes | ||
| ARST | 23.59 | 24.00 | Sold 1/3
Sold 1/3 |
+1.20
+2.20 |
yes | ||
| FIRE | 23.43 | 22.50 | stopped | -1.90 | yes | ||
| 10-14-9 | HRBN | 19.72 | 19.30 | stopped | -.50 | yes | |
| UCTT | 6.95 | 6.30 | stopped | -.65 | yes | ||
| 10-15-09 | MS | 33.35 | 33.00 | Sold all | +2.00 | ||
| 10-16-9 | QSII | 65.76 | 64.00 | stopped | -1.76 | yes | |
| ACI | 24.22 | 23.20 | stopped | -1.02 | yes | ||
| 10-19-9 | MEE | 33.64 | 34.50 | stopped | -1.20 | yes | |
| BTU | 42.35 | 42.50 | sold | +.20 | yes | ||
| FSLR | 146.80 | 152 | stopped | -5.00 | yes | ||
| ABAX | 23.86 | 25.00 | Covered ½
Covered 1/2 |
+1.00
+1.00 |
yes | ||
| PPD | 40.12 | 41.50 | yes | ||||
| MCO | 23.14 | 25.50 | no | ||||
| 10-22-9 | MCRS | 27.40 | 28.00 | Covered 1/3 | +1.30 | yes | |
| AMAG | 35.10 | 35.90 | yes | ||||
| TNDM | 22.92 | 23.40 | Covered ½
Covered ¼ Stopped 1/4 |
+1.90
+2.30 -.48 |
yes | ||
| BAC | 16.05 | 16.60 | Covered 1/3
Covered 1/3 Covered 1/3 |
+.80
+1.00 +1.50 |
yes | ||
| VMI | 75.70 | 76.70 | Covered ½
Covered ¼ Covered balance |
+3.00
+3.00 +4.00 |
yes | ||
| CMG | 81.13 | 83.00 | Stopped | -1.87 | yes | ||
| ROVI | 28,09 | 29.00 | Stopped | -.91 | yes | ||
| CCL | 30.60 | 31.60 | Covered 1/3 | +1.30 | yes | ||
| 10-30-9 | RTH | 90.00 | 92.00 | Stopped | -2.00 | yes | |
| ROST | 43.76 | 44.83 | Stopped | -1.10 | yes | ||
| NIHD | 27.25 | 28.25 | Covered ½
Stopped 1/2 |
+1.90
-1.00 |
yes | ||
| FWLT | 28.12 | 29.00 | Stopped | -.88 | yes | ||
| 11-2-09 | CYOU | 29.00 | 29.80 | Stopped | .-80 | yes | |
| YGE | 11.17 | 11.70 | Stopped | -50 | yes | ||
| JLL | 46.38 | 47.20 | Sold ½
Stopped 1/2 |
+1.30
-82 |
yes | ||
| XHB | 13.70 | 14.30 | Stopped | -.60 | yes | ||
| WFC | 27.40 | 28.20 | yes | ||||
| 11-5-09 | FUQI | 19.14 | 21.00 | yes | |||
| CMG | 87.50 | 89.50 | Stopped | -2.00 | yes | ||
| EXPE | 23.60 | 24.70 | Stopped | -1.10 | yes | ||
| AIG | 32.66 | 34.50 | no | ||||
| MEE | 33.68 | 32.00 | Sold | +3.60 | yes | ||
| XLF | 13.62 | 14.10 | no | ||||
| BEC | 65.50 | 68.50 | yes | ||||
| 11-13-09 | GT | 14.56 | 15.50 | yes | |||
| 11-17-09 | HAL | 32.00 | 30.00 | no | |||
| 11-18-09 | FCX | 82.50 | 79.00 | no | |||
| SLB | 68.34 | 66.00 | no | ||||
| ANR | 42.20 | 40.00 | no | ||||
| AGU | 55.80 | 54.0 | no | ||||
| ACI | 24.39 | 22.00 | no |