The Wrap 11/4/09

{+++}The market rolled over in a very big way today. The “Buffet Bounce” left the building as I though might happen and things got ugly after the Bernanke show was over. We rallied right after the announcement that we would leave rates practically at zero “for an extended period”, but then the news was digested and the sell off began.

The dollar got killed, materials were down, but gold and oil were higher. Watch gold as an indicator in here, if the commodity sector sells off but gold remains strong it’s a sign that there could be some fear entering the market.

The market got what it wanted; a dovish view of interest rates, but it still couldn’t hold its bid. Not bullish action at all. Investors hit the exits all at once and many were afraid of leaving chips on the table in front of a potentially bad unemployment report on Friday. Who could blame them?

Tomorrow could be choppy to down in my opinion and caution rules here. I still don’t see any bullish chats and short set ups look much better. Please note that some of our shorts that were recently stopped still look great, so they can be revisited if the market rolls over, I just put tight stops in because the market was whippy. So use your judgment.

Here are some shorts:

FUQI-SHORT
FUQI-SHORT
EXPE-SHORT
EXPE-SHORT
CMG-SHORT
CMG-SHORT

Thursday, November 05, 2009

Economic
7:00am BoE rate decision

7:45am ECB rate decision
8:30am Preliminary Q3 Nonfarm Productivity (last 6.6%), Q3 Unit Labor Costs (last -5.9%), Initial Jobless Claims (last 530K), Continuing Claims (last 5.797M)
10:30am Natural Gas Inventories
Events
Same-Store Sales before the open. Trades Ex-dividend: GWW $0.46, NBL $0.18, FII $0.24, OSG $0.438.
Earnings
Before the Open: ABMD, ACIW, ALD, ANSS, ARD, ARCC, ARIA, ATRO, BVF, BXC, CFL, CNQ, CAH, CTL, CI, CDE, CNSL, CLR, CRYP, CVS, DK, DPTR, DGIT, DTV, DPS, DYN, SSP, FTO, FSYS, FTEK, GEL, GLS, GNA, GLG, HGG, HOC, HDIX, HOS, HURN, IMAX, INCY, IPCC, ISPH, IVR, ISIS, KIM, KOP, KSWS, LAMR, LXP, LINC, MAC, MIC, MPW, MEA, PCS, MF, MGM, MITI, MWIV, NDAQ, NURO, NRF, OMG, OCR, ORN, PRFT, HK, PNCL, PDC, PXP, PLA, PBH, RSTI, RGLD, SLE, SMG, SNI, SIRI, SKYW, SMBL, SUG, SE, SPR, STXS, SXCI, SMA, TDC, TRI, TICC, TWC, TWGP, RMIX, USPH, WTI, WW, WEN, WWE, YTEC. After the Close: ABVT, ACTS, APEI, ARP, ASEI, AMSF, ATML, BEBE, NILE, CAP, CPKI, CBS, CHH, COHR, CSTR, CCIX, CXO, CROX, DPM, ELON, ECLP, BAGL, EBS, ERII, ENOC, EOG, EZPW, FFG, GXDX, GOK, HAIN, HSTX, HME, ZINC, ICFI, INWK, INAP, IGT, IRF, IPI, JDSU, LEAP, LPSN, MCHX, MAA, MIL, MOVE, NABI, NFG, NAVG, EGOV, NHWK, NVDA, OMPI, POWR, PRO, PSA, RRGB, RSCR, RMD, RST, ROVI, SONE, SD, SAPE, SEM, SMTL, SMTC, SWKS, SBUX, SUN, TS, KNOT, UEIC, YSI, VRSN, VOLC, ZGEN.
Date Symbol Long Price Short Price Stop Action Result P/(L) Triggered
9-24-09
MCO 23.00 22.00 Covered 1/3

Covered 1/3

Stopped 1/3

+2.00

+4.30

+1.00

yes
MHP 26.19 26 Covered ½,stopped on balance flat +2.00 yes
NAV 40.31 39 Covered 1/3

Covered 1/3

Covered 1/3

+1.30

+3.00

+2.03

yes
QSFT 16.30 16 Sold ½, sold balance(10-13-9) +.80

+1.70

yes
SIGA 8.43 7.65 Stopped -.80 yes
MELA 10.50 9.50 Stopped -1.00 yes
9-28-09 COCO 17.29 18.25 Sold ½

Stopped 1/2

+1.00

-.90

yes
ZION 17.39 19.00 Stopped ½ flat yes
9-30-09 YGE 11.90 12.60 -.70 yes
VNO 63.00 65.50 flat yes
XCO 19.05 18.00 stopped -1.05 yes
MHGC 5.60 5.20 -.40 yes
10-1-09 CALI 6.35 5.50 stopped -.85 no
CENX 8.97 9.60 stopped +.50 yes
BAC 16.02 16.80 stopped -.78 yes
AAP 37.70 39.40 stopped -1.70 yes
10-05-09 EXC 47.78 50 stopped -2..22 yes
JEF 27.60 27.90 Sold 100% (10-13-9) +1.60 yes
TSPT 14.35 13.70 stopped -.65 yes
HIG 29.05 28.30 stopped -.75 yes
APT 6.25 6.00 stopped -.25 yes
10-7-9 FCX 73.43 73.00 Sold half(10-13-9)

Sold balance10-14-9

+1.78

+3.10

yes
10-10-9 PENN 25.67 26.20 stopped -.53 yes
NITE 23.00 22.40 stopped -.60 yes
O 22.85 24.00 yes
STEC 25.51 25.80 Covered 1/3

Covered 2/3

+1.00

+3.50

yes
ARST 23.59 24.00 Sold 1/3

Sold 1/3

+1.20

+2.20

yes
FIRE 23.43 22.50 stopped -1.90 yes
10-14-9 HRBN 19.72 19.30 stopped -.50 yes
UCTT 6.95 6.30 stopped -.65 yes
10-15-09 MS 33.35 33.00 Sold all +2.00
10-16-9 QSII 65.76 64.00 stopped -1.76 yes
ACI 24.22 23.20 stopped -1.02 yes
10-19-9 MEE 33.64 34.50 stopped -1.20 yes
BTU 42.35 42.50 sold +.20 yes
FSLR 146.80 152 stopped -5.00 yes
ABAX 23.86 25.00 Covered ½

Covered 1/2

+1.00

+1.00

yes
PPD 40.12 41.50 yes
MCO 23.14 25.50 no
10-22-9 MCRS 27.40 28.00 Covered 1/3 +1.30 yes
AMAG 35.10 35.90 yes
TNDM 22.92 23.40 Covered ½

Covered ¼

Stopped 1/4

+1.90

+2.30

-.48

yes
BAC 16.05 16.60 Covered 1/3

Covered 1/3

Covered 1/3

+.80

+1.00

+1.50

yes
VMI 75.70 76.70 Covered ½

Covered ¼

Covered balance

+3.00

+3.00

+4.00

yes
CMG 81.13 83.00 Stopped -1.87 yes
ROVI 28,09 29.00 yes
CCL 30.60 31.60 Covered 1/3 +1.30 yes
10-30-9 RTH 90.00 92.00 yes
ROST 43.76 44.83 Stopped -1.10 yes
NIHD 27.25 28.25 Covered ½

Stopped 1/2

+1.90

-1.00

yes
FWLT 28.12 29.00 Stopped -.88 yes
11-2-09 CYOU 29.00 29.80 Stopped .-80 yes
YGE 11.17 11.70 Stopped -50 yes
JLL 46.38 47.20 Sold 1/2 +1.30 yes
XHB 13.70 14.30 Stopped -.60 yes
WFC 27.40 28.20 yes
11-5-09 FUQI 19.14 21.00 no
CMG 81.50 84.00 no
EXPE 21.95 24.00 no
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