The Wrap

{+++}We saw a big rally back today, the dollar caved again and the shorts covered, for now. There was some technical damage from the last couple of days, so a follow through day tomorrow or very early next week is needed for the bulls to stay in control. We are mostly short here and I am very comfortable from my perch. Look what happened to the market the last four days just because the dollar rose. Do you really think the market will handle things well when (if)the dollar rises and interest rates start going up? The market just gave me a very scary view of what can happen when they take away the punch bowel. We will add longs, mainly stocks in the material sector, but we need better set ups, I don’t want to put out longs one day after a vicious short covering rally, which is what we saw today.

Honestly I made all my money short today, RIMM and MON did the trick, both still look good as shorts, but I didn’t put them on the list because I am looking for a slightly better set up for you guys.

I have added four shorts and have updated the watchlist, please watch earnings and I highly recommend closing positions the day before a report.

RTH-SHORT
RTH-SHORT
ROST-SHORT
ROST-SHORT
NIHD-SHORT
NIHD-SHORT
FWLT-SHORT
FWLT-SHORT

Friday, October 30, 2009

Economic
8:30am Sept Personal Income (last 0.2%), Sept Personal Spending (last 1.3%), Sept PCE Deflator y/y (last -0.5%), Sept PCE Core (last m/m 0.1%, y/y 1.3%)
9:45am Oct Chicago Purchasing Manager Index (last 46.1)
10:00am Oct University of Michigan Confidence (last 69.4), Oct NAPM-Milwaukee (last 58)
Events
CPN Investor Update. Trades Ex-dividend: AOC $0.15, HAS $0.20, PAYX $0.31, SO $0.438.
Earnings
Before the Open: ALE, LNT, AEE, AXL, AGP, AOC, AIV, ACI, B, BIOS, CVX, SUR, CMC, CEG, CVH, CMI, D, UFS, DUK, EL, IT, GHM, HMSY, IBI, ITT, LNCE, LECO, MGLN, MDC, MDU, NI, NYX, PAG, PGN, REG, RUTH, SHPGY, SPG, SNE, TE, THI, UPL, WY, YRCW.
Date Symbol Long Price Short Price Stop Action Result P/(L) Triggered
9-24-09
MCO 23.00 22.00 Sold 1/3  sold 1/3 stopped 1/3 +2.00

+4.30

+1.00

yes
MHP 26.19 26 Sold ½,stopped on balance flat +2.00 yes
NAV 40.31 39 Sold 1/3, Sold 1/3

Sold 1/3

+1.30

+3.00

+2.03

yes
QSFT 16.30 16 Sold ½, sold balance(10-13-9) +.80

+1.70

yes
SIGA 8.43 7.65 -.80 yes
MELA 10.50 9.50 -1.00 yes
9-28-09 COCO 17.29 18.25 Sold ½

Stopped 1/2

+1.00

-.90

yes
ZION 17.39 19.00 Stopped ½ flat yes
9-30-09 YGE 11.90 12.60 -.70 yes
VNO 63.00 65.50 flat yes
XCO 19.05 18.00 stopped -1.05 yes
MHGC 5.60 5.20 -.40 yes
10-1-09 CALI 6.35 5.50 no
CENX 8.97 9.60 stopped +.50 yes
BAC 16.02 16.80 stopped -.78 yes
AAP 37.70 39.40 stopped -1.70 yes
10-05-09 EXC 47.78 50 stopped -2..22 yes
JEF 27.60 27.90 Sold 100% (10-13-9) +1.60 yes
TSPT 14.35 13.70 stopped -.65 yes
HIG 29.05 28.30 stopped -.75 yes
APT 6.25 6.00 -.25 yes
10-7-9 FCX 73.43 73.00 Sold half(10-13-9)

Sold balance10-14-9

+1.78

+3.10

yes
10-10-9 PENN 25.67 26.20 stopped -.53 yes
NITE 23.00 22.40 stopped -.60 yes
O 22.85 24.60 yes
STEC 25.51 25.80 Covered 1/3

Covered 2/3

+1.00

+3.50

yes
ARST 23.59 24.00 Sold 1/3,sold 1/3 +1.20

+2.20

yes
FIRE 23.43 22.50 stopped -1.90 yes
10-14-9 HRBN 19.72 19.30 stopped -.50 yes
UCTT 6.95 6.30 stopped -.65 yes
10-15-09 MS 33.35 33.00 Sold all +2.00
10-16-9 QSII 65.76 64.00 stopped -1.76 no
ACI 24.22 23.20 stopped -1.02 yes
10-19-9 MEE 33.64 34.50 stopped -1.20 yes
BTU 42.35 42.50 sold +.20 yes
FSLR 146.80 152 stopped -5.00 no
ABAX 23.86 25.00 yes
PPD 40.12 41.50 no
MCO 23.14 25.50 no
10-22-9 MCRS 27.40 28.00 yes
AMAG 35.10 35.90 yes
TNDM 22.92 23.40 yes
BAC 16.05 16.60 Sold 1/3

Sold 1/3

+.80

+1.00

yes
VMI 75.70 76.70 Sold 1/2 +3.00 yes
CMG 81.13 83.00 yes
ROVI 28,09 29.00 yes
CCL 30.60 31.60 yes
10-30-9 RTH 90.00 93.00 no
ROST 43.76 44.83 no
NIHD 27.25 28.25 no
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