Right now the market is on the 50 yard line and 750 and 800 are the respective goal posts. The S&P closed at 773 and a break through either level could possibly telegraph what the mood of the market will be for the next couple of weeks. No doubt the bears will line up their army at 800 and the bulls will feel compelled to take a strong stand at 750. Someone will win and someone will lose, so let’s be nimble.
The financials so far have been nice long side trades, actually phenomenal as the XLF has rallied 50% of the lows they put in back on March 9. You have to sell that rally, I don’t care what the reason. On the other hand, I’m interested to see how far the reflation trade will run, gold, oil, materials etc. Coal and steel just ripped yesterday and oil is over $50 as I write. Of course this a bullish move, but for all the wrong reasons, these groups are not rallying on demand for the commodity, the global economy is still a mess, it is simply a weak dollar play. Make money though if you can. I expect a choppy market today because of options expiration and a refusal by both sides to make a major statement. I will do an intra-day post if I see anything dramatic.