Yesterday the down volume was 40% over the three month average, but not today,weak volume, and we sold off at the end of the day, not that bullish if you ask me. Asia is continuing the rally as I write so we will have to see if it lasts. The unemployment data is coming and that could change things.
The dollar is up but not because we are thriving as a nation but because the rest of the world is falling apart, and yes, we are still the only game in town. The Euro is going downtown and Eastern Europe should start the contagion through the rest of Europe soon. The financials are dead, my God, who would want to own them other than for a trade? Their toxicity has toxicity and credit downgrades are coming, making it harder for them to raise money. My prediction here is that that they are going lower, I know it seems impossible, but as we get closer to the results of the “stress tests”, investors are going to run the other way. No one will want to be long uncertainty. Why the rebel yell to buy commodities? That’s all I heard all day. Didn’t we just get finished kicking the snot out of Potash? Oh yeah, Brazil may be cutting Potash prices by 25%. Did the global economy get fixed yesterday? I must have missed the memo. But there is always a bull market somewhere, right? BOOYAH.
I put it on the line every day in my trading and on this blog. I never hedge, especially on the blog because you don’t want to hear an “it could go either way” type of stance. How could any modicum of value then exist? So maybe we do go 1000 or 2000 from here and I have a little yolk on my face, I’m in cash every morning so it doesn’t matter to me, this is just me being macro. All I know is that I had my second best day trading in months and months (yesterday was big) and I did one small long trade, everything else was short. Go figure. I’m trying to find the “guy” who said the market bottoms six months before the recession ends, that would imply that you know when the recession will end. This market is like NO OTHER MARKET, SO THROW OUT THE PLAYBOOK!!!!!!!!!!!
But that’s just me.