The big debate from what I read, and people I talk to, is how will the month of January fare? From my synthesis of the debate, it seems to be cut down the middle. Half think we rally hard out of the gate and the other half think we could get crushed and then move up. Frankly, I really don’t have a big opinion here because this is such a crazy market, it’s so hard to call. It is a traders market for now and that’s how I will treat it. It’s silly in my opinion to make bets either way beyond a day, but that’s just me. I’m trading what it gives me. I still have a bearish market view, but that doesn’t mean we can’t rally substantially from these levels. The DOW closed above 9000 and the S&P closed above 924. There is a lot of cash lying around, and all work and no play can make Mr. Market a very vindictive boy. I’m not stupid.
With that said, I don’t think the bulls or the bears should get cocky here because complacency on both sides will rip out your heart every time. I’m ready to be long, then short, then long again if that becomes necessary. You get the picture.
We have all lived through history this past year, so anyone who tells you where we will be in a day, a week or a month is probably someone you will want to avoid at all cost. The volume has been non existent and we probably won’t see a real trend for a couple of weeks, unless volume picks up dramatically. Volume rarely lies, we just need to see it stay around for more than a couple of days. We could see a cyclical bull, certainly not a secular bull in my opinion. I plan on making hay either way.
Stick around, it’s gonna get hot. I’ll publish some links, posts and the newsletter this weekend. Have a great night and get your rest and don’t forget to sign up for the blog feed and newsletter.